The U.S. Northeast, the country's largest heating oil consuming region, will have above-average temperatures though Jan. 15, according to the National Weather Service. The mean temperature in New York was 45 degrees Fahrenheit (7 Celsius) at 6 a.m., or 12 degrees above the normal mean, according to Meteorlogix LLC. The price of oil is “limited by the prospect of continued milder weather in the U.S.,” said Michael Davies, an analyst in London with commodities broker Sucden (U.K.) Ltd.
“It will be difficult for the market to stage a significant rally higher unless some sort of supply issue develops.''
Crude oil for February delivery rose 11 cents to $61.16 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:43 p.m. London time. There will be no floor trading in New York on Tuesday due to a national day of mourning for former President Gerald R. Ford. The exchange was closed on Monday for the New Year's holiday.
Brent crude for February settlement gained 28 cents to $61.14 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
Expressed in U.S. dollars, the price of U.S. benchmark crude, called West Texas Intermediate, fell about 3.5 percent last year. The oil price dropped about 12.5 percent in 2006 expressed in euros, slid 1 percent in yen and fell 14 percent in British pounds.
U.S. crude oil and heating oil stockpiles were higher than the five-year average in the week ended Dec. 22, the U.S. Energy Department said last week.
Oil advanced almost 1 percent on Dec. 29 on speculation that the execution of Saddam Hussein may cause an upsurge of violence in Iraq, threatening oil supplies. Iraq has the world’s third- biggest proved oil reserves, according to BP Plc.
Above-normal temperatures will continue in New York into next week, with no inflows of polar or arctic air, the National Weather Service said on Monday on its Web site.
“The largest positive temperature anomalies are expected over the northeastern U.S.,'' according to the service.
Heating demand in the region will be 30 percent below normal in the week ending Jan. 5, forecaster Weather Derivatives Inc. said last week. “The most important factor remains the weather in the U.S. Northeast,'' Edward Meir, an analyst at Man Financial Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a report.
“Our area continues to enjoy relatively mild weather, with little sign of cold weather brewing.''
Oil may rise this week on speculation that U.S. inventories will fall for a sixth week as members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reduce production, a Bloomberg survey showed last week. Twelve of 26 analysts, traders and brokers, or 46 percent, said prices will increase this week, while eight expected a drop and six forecast little change.
OPEC's basket price, a weighted average of 11 blends produced by OPEC nations, fell 12 cents to $56 a barrel on Dec. 29, the latest available data from the group.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their bets that New York crude oil futures will rise, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 19,848 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the commission said last week.
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