Stocks: Performance was nothing to write home about:
The service stocks put on a show late in the week, with the Oil Service HOLDRs ETF (OIH) ending at an all time high. Multiple comments from service company stalwarts about improving conditions, along with multiple buyout rumors and a very resilient natural gas strip, pushed the group higher. Current service positions include calls in Halliburton Co. (HAL) and Noble Corp. (NE).
Producers, majors and independent refiners alike turned in a mixed performance, pacing volatility in the broader markets. We took losses in multiple Tesoro Corp. (TSO) put positions last week.
Commodities:
Crude: Quiet trading buoyed late in the week by continuing acts of violence in Nigeria (kidnappings that prompted Chevron Corp. (CVX) to withdraw about 300 workers from Delta facilities, and bombings which shut in another 100,000 bopd).
Gasoline: The first build in stocks in 13 weeks was met with a mixed price response. However as Nigerian tensions mounted, June RBOB prices soared to new 2007 highs. Crack spreads also reached record levels for the year last week.
Natural Gas: Flattish trading on an as-expected 96 Bcf build in inventories.
Data from the CFTC indicates the speculative net short position remains near record levels. Every time natural gas has weakened, it has consistently been met with buying. Cooling load is starting to pick up, and as much as I hate to admit that it's a driver of price, hurricane season is around the corner.
That large short position will likely be supportive of gas prices at least into early summer. After that, the direction of natural gas prices is likely to key off heat, hurricane activity, and the balance of imports. It's expected to be a hot, stormy summer -- so I wouldn't expect to see gas prices fall through $7/Mcf anytime soon.
Natural gas imports continue to be volatile from week to week. As expected, LNG imports are rising as high local prices attract stranded gas from far off shores and...
Taken together, and assuming exports are flat for comparison purposes, natural gas imports are running in a minor deficit to year-ago levels. This is modestly bullish for prices, as I'd expect continued weakness in Canadian imports to more than offset an increase in LNG shipments. My thanks to APA for compiling and publishing the weekly data used to generate the 2007 figures in the preceding charts.
Holdings Watch: In general, I'm still long the gassy E&Ps, getting longer in service and tankers again, and despite my thoughts that we are going to see crack spreads peak in the near future, I'm getting less short the refiners (after enduring a bludgeoning I won't soon forget).
Hurricane Mania Watch: AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi just released an update on his thoughts for the 2007 hurricane season. Two words: lookout Florida. I give credit where credit is due: Joe was the first, to my recollection, to nail the colder late-winter call in mid-January. He's looking for 13 to 14 named storms in the Atlantic, with multiple strikes on Florida, and even some storms which strike both Florida and the Gulf Coast. Comment: Seemingly bullish for natural gas and gasoline, and we're still months away from the most active part of the season.
Nigeria Watch: MEND snatched an AGIP manager yesterday. Look for the daily violence and kidnappings to increase through May as we head towards the changing of the presidential reins on May 29. International observers have deemed the April elections "non-credible," which will only add fuel to the rebel's fire.
Clean Energy Conference: Austin, TX, today through Wednesday. Check out the participants and agenda.
Tags: Blogalaxia,Nigeria,Canada,Halliburton,Texas
