CANADA: Facing Strong Gas Demand, Constrained Supply. ConocoPhillips

by Kurt Wulff (McDep Associates)

Chief Executive Jim Mulva of buy-recommended ConocoPhillips (COP) was unusually frank about the gasoline and natural gas outlook on the conference call to discuss first quarter 2007 results reported on April 25.

Surprised that U.S. gasoline demand is growing 2% a year despite an oil price of $60 a barrel, Mr. Mulva expressed concern about being able to supply the need for gasoline not only in the summer, but also in the winter after that. Later in the call, in connection with the delayed Alaska natural gas pipeline, the COP CEO exclaimed, “We have a huge natural gas problem in North America.”

He mused that liquefied natural gas imports are not going to come as quickly as thought while we see natural decline of production in the Lower 48 and Canada. The combination of a strong demand outlook amid constrained supply fits our view that natural gas and refined oil products offer attractive investment potential.

At currently estimated net present value of $100 a share, ConocoPhillips stock trades above its 200 day average just as do the fundamental indicators of six-year oil and natural gas price. A favorite U.S. mega cap energy company, COP has a double weight in our illustrative energy portfolio concentrated on real assets that promise a high return providing clean energy to support global growth.


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