AMERICA: DOE Inventory Report Slightly Bearish for Gasoline

by Dave Marino

The headline numbers on the EIA report -- crude up 1 million barrels, gasoline up 1.7 million and distillate up 1 million -- sent the gasoline market lower, but the report is not overly bearish.

The 1.528 million b/d total US gasoline imports and the 204,000 b/d week-over-week in Gulf Coast gasoline output should ease some supply concerns, as it shows refineries coming back from maintenance and the long-anticipated flow of imports starting to arrive. Demand growth is slowing, down to just 1% year-over-year during the past four weeks.

However, within the 1.7 million barrel gasoline build is a 1.2 million barrel build on the US West Coast, which is largely isolated from the rest of the US refining complex. Also, total US gasoline stocks are still 14.9 million barrels below the five-year average. WTI prices should get some support at the front of the curve from the 1.2 million barrel draw from Cushing, OK stocks, a sign that the glut at the WTI delivery point is loosening.

Crude imports fell back to 10.3 million b/d, and refinery utilization crept higher to 89.5%, which in theory should have led to a crude draw. Imports may have been overstated the week before, and the sharp drop this week a bit of a correction.

Overall, there is nothing in the report that should cause the gasoline crack spread to collapse from the record-high ($33/barrel+) levels. But the stage is set -- due to rising imports and production -- for weaker cracks in June and July.


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