RUSSIA: LUKOIL's Revenue in 1st Quarter at $16 Bln

Russian oil major LUKOIL is releasing a financial report for the first quarter of the year on Thursday as analysts are expecting indicators to grow against those in the previous three months but drop compared to the figures in the same period last year.

LUKOIL’s financial performance is likely to have improved in the first quarter on low export duties and mining tax. Urals oil dropped in the period by an average $2.17, to $54.4 per barrel, 6.6 percent less than in the first quarter of 2006, and 3.2 percent more than at the end of 2006.

Analysts at the Troika Dialog investment firm estimate that a barrel of oil in pipeline supplies from Western Siberia to the Russian Far East stood at $24.38 per barrel in the first quarter, 13.9 percent more than in the fourth quarter of 2006. Kommersant contacted analysts from seven Russian and foreign banks and investment companies to draft a combine forecast.

The estimates put LUKOIL’s revenue in the first quarter at $16.1 billion, some 1 percent down from the fourth quarter of 2006, and 7 percent higher than last year.

EBITDA is likely to come to $2.54 billion, 19 percent up from the last quarter’s result, but 8 percent down compared to the last year’s indicator.

Net profits is expected to stand at $1.42 billion, 36 percent more than in the fourth quarter, and 16 percent less than in the first quarter in 2006, according to the experts.


YUKOS HQ Goes Back on the Block
Rosneft may still move into YUKOS headquarters. The state oil company reported that negotiations have begun with the new owners of the building, the mysterious OOO Prana. Moreover, Rosneft is willing to buy the other assets sold in the same lot as the building for 100 billion rubles. If Rosneft gets a serious discount, it will be obvious that the results of the auction were not related to the market value of the assets. The difference from the starting price (22 billion rubles) corresponds to the sum of YUKOS claims against companies belonging to Roman Abramovich, whose involvement in the transaction was reported by Kommersant sources. After Prana's victory, the sides began to discuss a settlement.

Rosneft president Sergey Bogdanchikov announced yesterday that the company had begun negotiations with Prana on the acquisition of YUKOS assets that were auctioned off in lot 13 at the beginning of May. “We are holding negotiations with the owners or executives of Prana. To tell the truth, we are not especially interested in who they are, and we intend to acquire a significant part of the assets [of YUKOS, purchased by Prana],” Interfax news agency quotes Bogdanchikov as saying. He emphasized that it was a matter of buying YUKOS assets, not assets of Prana itself.

At Rosneft, they declined to say exactly what assets were of interest. A Kommersant source at YUKOS said that the purchase of the company's former headquarters on Dubininskaya St. in Moscow is under discussion. Bogdanchikov said that, besides the building, several thousand railway tanker cars, money in the sum of several hundred million dollars, unreturned VAT in approximately the same volume and several hundred thousand tons of petroleum products. “Just the YUKOS-M trading house comes in at over $1 billion, plus the filling stations in Moscow and Moscow Region,” Bogdanchikov said. Prana representatives refuse to talk to the press, so Bogdanichikov's words could not be confirmed with them.

The Rosneft president did not say what sum would be offered in the deal, but he confirmed that it would include “a profit within the limits accepted in the company.” Rosneft bid up to 100 billion rubles in the auction for lot 13. Experts were amazed at the outcome of that auction, which inexplicably totaled 100.09 billion rubles ($3.9 billion) after starting at 22 billion rubles.

Research by Kommersant published on May 31 suggests that thee may be $2 billion in the accounts of subsidiary companies that were included in the lot. Since the time of the auction, though, another theory has been advanced, that is, that the huge price was paid because that money had to be transferred to YUKOS.

Two weeks ago, a source close to the presidential administration told Kommersant what that could be necessary for. He said that the deal was financed by Russian billionaire, Governor of Chukotka and former owner of Sibneft (now known as Gazprom Neft) Roman Abramovich. According to the source, Abramovich returned to YUKOS the $3 billion that it paid for 20 percent of Sibneft in 2003 as part of the unification of the companies. At the end of 2003, after the beginning of the Russian authorities attack on YUKOS and its stockholders, Abramovich cancelled the deal, which was already in its final stages. Then, hoping for money with which to pay tax demands, YUKOS insisted on a reverse exchange, especially since a mirror deal was required to split the companies up. Sibneft shareholders did not agree to it though. Kommersant's source said that “Roman Abramovich remained in debt, even though YUKOS, along with the Gazprom Neft stock, was subject to expropriation.” Kommersant was unable to confirm those claims. Millhouse Capital, which manages Abramovich's assets, firmly denies any relationship to Prana or the deal to obtain YUKOS assets.

Yesterday Kommersant learned of events that may serve as indirect confirmation of the involvement of Abramovich structures in the sale of lot 13. Sources say that, after the sale of the lot at the end of May, a settlement between YUKOS and several offshore companies that represented the interests of Millhouse Capital. YUKOS filed suit in the London International Arbitration Court in 2004 to demand that Sibneft shareholders buy 20 percent of that company and return $3 billion. In addition, YUKOS insisted that compensation for the failed deal to form YukosSibneft included a provision for the party that rejected the deal to pay $1 billion to the other.

It seems unlikely that YUKOS will receive that money. Kommersant has learned that the agreement being hammered out includes a renouncement of all mutual claims, with YUKOS remaining the owner of Sibneft stock. (In April, it was sold to Gazprom along with other YUKOS assets.) Sibneft shareholders will not return money to the company. Neither
YUKOS nor Millhouse Capital would comment on the progress of arbitration proceedings yesterday. If a settlement is reached, and Rosneft is able to buy the main assets from lot 13 significantly more cheaply that for 100.09 billion rubles, the theory of Abramovich's “debt” will receive further confirmation. The fact that Kommersant showed the involvement of structures close to Gazprom in the deal on May 16 and June 13 is not contradictory. They could take part in the settlement as the new owners of Sibneft.

Rosneft Buys YUKOS Gas Stations
Oil giant Rosneft has kept its promise, buying gas stations and other facilities that once belonged to bankrupt YUKOS. The little-known Yuniteks, which is believed to have links with Gazprombank, reaped $150 million on the resale, making Rosneft one of the largest oil retailers in the country. Rosneft, however, will own 100 percent in 232 out of 495 gas stations.

Rosneft said Tuesday it signed a deal with Yuniteks to buy YUKOS’s 495 gas stations and oil product terminal for just over 16 billion rubles.

Yuniteks, a little-known firm whose owners have not been identified, won an auction for the lot on May 10, offering 12.5 billion rubles with a start price of 7.7 billion rubles. Shell and TNK-BP were also bidding for the chain of gas stations in 12 regions. Yuniteks has thus earned some 3.9 billion rubles on the deal. Earlier reports said Yuniteks has links with gas producer Gazprom and its subsidiary Gazprombank.

Rosneft added that it bought 100-percent stakes in 232 gas stations while all others are still to be owned together with administrations of the regions where several YUKOS’s oil business units were registered. The subsidiaries enjoyed special tax privileges, which went on to become part of accusations against YUKOS CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his colleagues. Rosneft has not decided if it would buy out the regional shares, but says it will consider sale offers.

The purchase has raised the number of Rosneft’s gas stations to over 1,550 I Russia, second only to LUKOIL’s 1,658, according to Andrey Fedorov, an analyst with Alfa Bank. The chain of LUKOIL unites as much as 5,800 stations including filling stations abroad.