Eighteen of 37 analysts surveyed, or 49 percent, said oil prices will increase. Ten, or 27 percent, said prices will be little changed and nine forecast a decline. Last week, 36 percent of respondents said prices would fall.
Refineries operated at 89.2 percent of capacity in the week ended June 8, the lowest rate in 15 years for the period, an Energy Department report showed. Gasoline inventories increased 3,000 barrels, the least since April. Oil often follows gasoline during the summer months. U.S. gasoline use peaks between the Memorial Day holiday in May and Labor Day in early September.
Crude oil for July delivery rose $2.89, or 4.5 percent, to $67.65 a barrel in the first four days of trading this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday's settlement price was the highest since Sept. 5.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 53 percent of the time since it was introduced in April 2004.
RISE NEUTRAL FALL
18 10 9Pelosi, Dingell Clash Over Push for Tough Fuel-Efficiency Rules
Pelosi, 67, opposes a proposal by House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell, the auto industry's closest ally in the chamber, that would attach protections for carmakers to a bill tightening mileage standards. Representative Edward Markey, whom Pelosi chose to lead a new global-warming panel, has proposed tougher rules. General Motors Corp. Vice Chairman Bob Lutz has said such a measure would cost $6,000 per vehicle.
For now, Markey's bill has the support of 144 co-sponsors, far short of the 218 votes needed for passage. Representative Henry Waxman, a California Democrat who serves on Dingell's committee, said the intra-party rift may be tough to resolve as Democrats work to craft a broad-based energy bill this month.
``There are real differences among Democrats,'' said Waxman, 67, who backs Markey's proposal.
Pelosi said yesterday that her ``healthy debate'' with Dingell, of Michigan, would ultimately result in a compromise.
``I think we'll be able to come to terms about what bill will come to the floor,'' she said on Bloomberg Television's ``Political Capital with Al Hunt,'' airing this weekend.
`Bipartisan Way'
Dingell, 80, said yesterday that his panel would continue to debate his proposal, over Pelosi's objections. He also said he would seek support from Republicans. ``When we're done, I think the majority should rule,'' he said. ``I think we'll do this in a bipartisan way.''
Representative Joe Barton of Texas, the ranking Republican on the panel, said that while he is urging his party's lawmakers to remain neutral for now, he may work with Dingell on a fuel- efficiency measure.
``If I could have only one horse in the race, it would be named Dingell,'' Barton said in an interview.
The dispute revolves around a disagreement over how much time automakers should get to meet higher corporate average fuel economy, or CAFE, standards, and whether cars and light trucks should be subject to identical rules. Also at issue is whether carmakers should be shielded from efforts of some states -- including Pelosi's home state of California -- to set their own tougher auto-emission limits.
Democrats' Promises
The debate is an early test of the Democrats' ability to keep an election-year promise to address global warming, said Phil Sharp, a former Democratic representative from Indiana who now heads Resources for the Future, a Washington research group.
Most of the disputes in the global-warming debate -- including efforts to set limits for carbon dioxide emissions -- pit Democrats from coastal states who favor tougher standards against those from Midwestern and southern states, where the coal, oil and auto industries are concentrated, he said.
``Negotiating this to a conclusion is a significant test for the House and Senate Democratic leadership,'' Sharp said.
``It's the two coasts versus the rest of the party,'' said Alan Reuther, legislative director for the United Auto Workers, which backs Dingell's proposal.
Earlier this year, Pelosi created the new select panel on global warming and placed Markey, 60, a Massachusetts Democrat who also serves on Dingell's committee, at its helm. The move angered Dingell, and Pelosi assured him that only his panel would draft any legislation.
Leading Role
Markey has nevertheless staked out a leading role in the CAFE debate, introducing House legislation in March that raises the auto efficiency standard for both cars and light trucks to 35 miles per gallon by 2018. Cars now must average 27.5 mpg, and trucks need to get 21.6 mpg. Markey's bill also would require a 4 percent annual increase in the standards after 2018.
Companies such as Detroit-based GM, the largest U.S. automaker, say the standards would be too costly to implement and aren't the most efficient way to address global warming.
Under Dingell's plan, passenger cars would have to average 36 miles per gallon by 2021, and light trucks would need to get 30 mpg by 2024. The plan also would bar California and other states from setting their own carbon-emission standards.
The matter also is playing out among Democratic presidential candidates.
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, the leading challenger to Democratic-frontrunner Hillary Rodham Clinton, got a tepid response at the Detroit Economic Club when he gave a speech there last month endorsing CAFE standards similar to those advocated by Markey.
Clinton, a senator from New York, appeared at a union hall in Detroit a few weeks later and received a warmer reception by endorsing higher fuel-efficiency standards without setting specific targets.
In a speech in Detroit in May, Dingell described the debate over fuel standards as ``stale and sterile.'' Last week, however, he offered his own proposal. Markey led 11 other Democrats on the energy panel in opposing the plan. Markey said June 13 that if Dingell's bill moves out of committee, he would try to muster enough votes on the House floor to remove the language barring individual state standards.
``We have a very real chance of winning,'' Markey said.
Tullow Oil Shares Surge for Second Day on Uganda Appraisal Well
Shares of Tullow Oil Plc, an explorer for hydrocarbons on three continents, surged for a second day after the company said it's drilling an appraisal well in Uganda.
Tullow stock climbed as much as 21 pence, or 5.3 percent, to 416 pence. The shares traded at 412.75 pence as of 8:28 a.m. in London. They rose 3.8 percent yesterday.
The London-based company yesterday denied market speculation it had made a discovery on the Kenyan side of the Ugandan border.
