OPEC's extra oil announced this month has come too late to help bring oil prices down over the winter and at best, will prevent them from rising much higher than they already are, the Center for Global Energy Studies (CGES) warned Monday.
"The promised increase in output will do nothing to slow the rise in oil prices until at least the middle of next year, by which time they could be well on their way to 100 dollars per barrel (dpb)," Center for Global Energy Studies said in its latest monthly report.
The ten member organization agreed to raise their aggregate oil output by 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd) with effect from the beginning of November.
The London-based centre said the production increase should result in additional oil actually appearing on the market, but that it had little discernible impact on the market with concerns that the increase will reach consuming countries until early 2008.
"In the longer term, there is fear about the strength of global economic growth and the impact of any possible slowdown on oil demand that dominate," it said.
Using OPEC supply figures, which it said had a different view of the oil market, the latest report forecast that Dated Brent prices would continue to rise, reaching an average of 86.1 dpb in the first quarter of next year and 94.5 dpb in the second.
A much more conservative scenario, based on an economic slowdown, suggested that rates would average around 75 dpb for the next 12 months.
A third set of figures based on a resilient global economy, which Center for Global Energy Studies expected, predicted that Dated Brent would rise from its average of 74.5 dpb in the current quarter to an average of 90.1 dpb in the second quarter of 2008.
