The "nuclear renaissance" in the U.S. power industry is still scheduled to arrive within a decade, but it's running a little late, a federal regulator said at a Houston energy conference Friday.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission member Peter Lyons said his agency has received four applications for new nuclear reactors and expects more soon, but the new joint construction and operating license review process is untested.
"I would not be surprised if the initial applications will probably take longer than we hoped," Lyons said at Cambridge Energy Research Associates' CERA Week conference.
"The industry is on a learning curve," he said.
The new review process is meant to take 42 months, but the review for the first application, submitted by NRG Energy in September to add two new reactors to the South Texas Project near Bay City, already has suffered a setback.
The commission this week postponed indefinitely a hearing on whether to allow parties to intervene in the process because NRG wasn't ready to answer technical questions about parts of the application. NRG has only said it's trying to resolve "vendor support issues" related to the reactor design.
Environmental groups filed a petition last week to have the hearing delayed. They said the 60-day period for them to file their concerns, which would have expired Feb. 25, wasn't enough time, particularly since regulators had stopped reviewing parts of the application at NRG's request.
But Lyons said the decision to postpone the hearing was based only on NRG's request.
"The change was not driven by activists at all," Lyons said.
Last week the commission started another 60-day comment period for an application filed in October by the Tennessee Valley Authority for new reactors at the Bellefonte nuclear power station near Scottsboro, Ala. The agency also is reviewing submissions from Dominion Resources and Duke Energy. Lyons said the Nuclear Regulatory Commission planned to hire 200 new workers per year in anticipation of the surge in applications for new plants, but with an attrition rate of about 200 per year, the annual hiring has been closer to 400. Holding onto staff in the future may become even more difficult, he said, as power plant companies get closer to actually building new reactors.
"If the 'renaissance' really takes off at the level some propose there may be hiring pressure from the utilities," he said.
Others at the conference were more skeptical about the pace of new reactors.
Michael Morris, chairman and CEO of power plant operator American Electric Power, said the likelihood of legal challenges is keeping his company from being part of the "first wave" of new reactor applications.
And John Deutch, the former CIA director who is now chairman of the chemistry department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said he sees political trouble ahead for nuclear power.
If a Democrat wins the White House this year, Deutch said, it likely will embolden nuclear opponents, while the ongoing struggle to develop a long-term radioactive storage facility in the United States "increases the intensity of nuclear skeptics."
CERA researchers, however, were bullish on the development of new nuclear plants.
"There's a strong possibility we will see a dozen reactors under construction by 2015," said Christopher Hansen, CERA associate director of global power.
Rising costs for labor, steel, equipment and engineering expertise have driven CERA's cost estimate for nuclear reactors from $2,000 per kilowatt three years ago to $3,500 per kilowatt.
But Hansen said nuclear power could still be competitive if lawmakers impose a $30-per-ton carbon price on coal. Many at the conference said that is likely given the groundswell of support for greenhouse gas legislation.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission member Peter Lyons said his agency has received four applications for new nuclear reactors and expects more soon, but the new joint construction and operating license review process is untested.
"I would not be surprised if the initial applications will probably take longer than we hoped," Lyons said at Cambridge Energy Research Associates' CERA Week conference.
"The industry is on a learning curve," he said.
The new review process is meant to take 42 months, but the review for the first application, submitted by NRG Energy in September to add two new reactors to the South Texas Project near Bay City, already has suffered a setback.
The commission this week postponed indefinitely a hearing on whether to allow parties to intervene in the process because NRG wasn't ready to answer technical questions about parts of the application. NRG has only said it's trying to resolve "vendor support issues" related to the reactor design.
Environmental groups filed a petition last week to have the hearing delayed. They said the 60-day period for them to file their concerns, which would have expired Feb. 25, wasn't enough time, particularly since regulators had stopped reviewing parts of the application at NRG's request.
But Lyons said the decision to postpone the hearing was based only on NRG's request.
"The change was not driven by activists at all," Lyons said.
Last week the commission started another 60-day comment period for an application filed in October by the Tennessee Valley Authority for new reactors at the Bellefonte nuclear power station near Scottsboro, Ala. The agency also is reviewing submissions from Dominion Resources and Duke Energy. Lyons said the Nuclear Regulatory Commission planned to hire 200 new workers per year in anticipation of the surge in applications for new plants, but with an attrition rate of about 200 per year, the annual hiring has been closer to 400. Holding onto staff in the future may become even more difficult, he said, as power plant companies get closer to actually building new reactors.
"If the 'renaissance' really takes off at the level some propose there may be hiring pressure from the utilities," he said.
Others at the conference were more skeptical about the pace of new reactors.
Michael Morris, chairman and CEO of power plant operator American Electric Power, said the likelihood of legal challenges is keeping his company from being part of the "first wave" of new reactor applications.
And John Deutch, the former CIA director who is now chairman of the chemistry department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said he sees political trouble ahead for nuclear power.
If a Democrat wins the White House this year, Deutch said, it likely will embolden nuclear opponents, while the ongoing struggle to develop a long-term radioactive storage facility in the United States "increases the intensity of nuclear skeptics."
CERA researchers, however, were bullish on the development of new nuclear plants.
"There's a strong possibility we will see a dozen reactors under construction by 2015," said Christopher Hansen, CERA associate director of global power.
Rising costs for labor, steel, equipment and engineering expertise have driven CERA's cost estimate for nuclear reactors from $2,000 per kilowatt three years ago to $3,500 per kilowatt.
But Hansen said nuclear power could still be competitive if lawmakers impose a $30-per-ton carbon price on coal. Many at the conference said that is likely given the groundswell of support for greenhouse gas legislation.
Source: Houston Chronicle| By TOM FOWLER
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