The West’s actions in the long-term dialogue of the world community with Tehran look somewhat unconfident. Frequent wavering in talks with Iran is due not only to Russia’s and China’s position, blanching over Tehran every time when the crisis exacerbates. Simply, those opposed to Iran always feel their position is not completely impeccable.
So far, no one has given any intelligible answer to a number of important questions. What stage is Iran’s nuclear program really going through? What are Iranian scientists really doing? Are they doing anything at all? Can Iran enrich uranium on industrial scale, as Mahmud Ahmadinejad victoriously proclaims? What are Iranians hiding in the vaults of Natanz nuclear center? And the main question – how many years will it take Tehran to produce its first nuclear bomb? Four years? Eight years?
If the situation develops in the worst direction, that is, if the U.S. and Israel deliver precision strikes on Iran, it will remain unclear what they actually bombed. In this case, explanations will look even more doubtful than in the case with Iran. At least, Saddam Hussein had chemical weapons.So, it remains vague for what the West is bargaining with Iran. The U.S. and Europe fail to clearly understand what they want from Iran. All that allows Tehran to have an advantageous position: to make threatening and ambiguous hints, saying at the same time that its nuclear program is peaceful, and that it does not want to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Long discussion of the Iranian issue by the six powers reminds a game. A game where Iran is winning either way. Thus it becomes clear that the six states’ suggestions enounced by Javier Solana to Ali Larijani is not a radically new strategy of the West in relations with Iran. It is, rather, just another tactic move. Apparently, the six states do not understand very well what this initiative will bring.
Making concessions in talks is definitely good and necessary, but only when negotiators have clear goals and concessions are a means for achieving them. On the contrary, when one party does not know its own mind, the consequences might be grave. It is impossible to keep making concessions to Iran forever.
Let us imagine Ahmadinejad’s impetuous fantasies for a moment. Seeing that concessions are being constantly made to him, this man might think: “What if they are really afraid of us?” And then he will begin rapidly creating the nuclear bomb.
It would drastically change the alignment of forces in the Middle East and in the Caspian Sea region. Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and whoever else, would see Ahmadinejad in a different light. The Iranian president would definitely want to look into a mirror like that.
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