Is Turkmenistan Neutral?
Turkmenistan’s late President Saparmurat Atayevich Niyazov (1940-2006) created a personality cult that will survive him and probably several successors, including Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedow. The motto he established: Halk, Watan, Turkmenbashy (One Nation, One People, One Leader) can still be seen everywhere throughout Turkmenistan, from the most remote villages to monuments in the capital of Ashgabat.
Even though Berdimuhammedow has promised various reforms, it seems change is slow to come. The Internet is somewhat more available, but access is by no means widespread. One of the best indicators may be the Tolkuchka (“shoving”) market outside Ashgabat, where people come from all over the country to buy and sell, and the selection of carpets remains nothing if not spectacular. The problem, however, is that all but the smallest carpets require an export certificate, and these are still difficult to come by.
Turkmen Customs officials are friendly and have even been known to offer a traveller a drink of vodka, but they still search luggage looking for one thing in particular: carpets!
Turkmenistan’s future lies in its vast natural resources. Turkmenistan ranks fourth in the world to Russia, the United States, and Canada in natural gas and oil extraction. The Turkmenistan Natural Gas Company (Turkmengaz), under the auspices of the Ministry of Oil and Gas, controls gas extraction in the republic. Gas production is the youngest and most dynamic and promising sector of the national economy. Turkmenistan's gas reserves are estimated at 8.1-8.7 trillion cubic meters and its prospecting potential at 10.5. trillion cubic meters. The Ministry of Oil and Gas oversees exploration of new deposits. Sites under exploration are located in Mary Province, in western and northern Turkmenistan, on the right bank of the Amu Darya, and offshore in the Caspian Sea.Turkmenistan has always described itself as neutral, but this neutrality may not extend to oil and gas. In April 2003, Niyazov signed a 25-year gas deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin under which Russia gained the right to buy most Turkmen gas starting in January 2007.
In 2006, under the contract, Russia was to buy 7 billion-10 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas. Then on 29 December, Aleksei Miller of Gazprom signed a new contract in Ashgabat to buy 30 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan in 2006 at $65 per 1,000 cubic meters. The result is a decidedly pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian arrangement. Given Ukraine’s pro-European inclinations, the situation could become quite complex if things do not change.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
The Kasparov Gambit
Garry Kasparov was born Garri Weinshtain in Baku, Azerbaijan SSR to an Armenian mother and a Jewish father. He first began the serious study of chess after he came across a chess problem set up by his parents and proposed a solution.
His father died when he was seven years old. At the age of twelve, he adopted his mother's Armenian surname, Kasparyan, modifying it to a more Russified version, Kasparov.
Kasparov began to study chess seriously, and developed quickly.
He became world chess champion in 1985, but then broke with the world chess organization, FIDE.
In 2005, Kasparov announced that he would be retiring from serious competitive chess. He cited as the reason a lack of personal goals in the chess world (he commented when winning the Russian championship in 2004 that it had been the last major title he had never won outright) and expressed frustration at the failure to reunify the world championship. Kasparov said he may play in some rapid chess events for fun, but intends to spend more time on his books, including both the My Great Predecessors series and a work on the links between decision-making in chess and in other areas of life, and will continue to involve himself in Russian politics, which he views as "headed down the wrong path."
Kasparov's political involvement started in the 1980s. He joined the CPSU in 1984, and in 1987 was elected to the Central Committee of Komsomol. In 1990, however, he left the party, and in May of that year took part in the creation of the Democratic Party of Russia. In June 1993, Kasparov was involved in the creation of the "Choice of Russia" bloc of parties, and in 1996 he took part in the election campaign of Boris Yeltsin.
In 2001 he voiced his support for the Russian television TV channel NTV. After his retirement from chess in 2005, Kasparov turned to politics and created the United Civil Front, a social movement whose main goal is to "work to preserve electoral democracy in Russia. Kasparov was instrumental in setting up The Other Russia, a coalition including Kasparov's United Civil Front, Eduard Limonov's National Bolshevik Party, Vladimir Ryzhkov's Russian Republican Party and other organizations which oppose the government of Vladimir Putin.
The Other Russia has been boycotted by the leaders of Russia's democratic opposition parties, Yabloko and Union of Right Forces as they are concerned about the inclusion of radical nationalist and left-wing groups in its ranks, such as the National Bolshevik Party and former members of the Rodina party. However, regional branches of Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces have opted to take part in the coalition.
Kasparov says that leaders of these parties are controlled by Kremlin. Kasparov helped organize the Saint Petersburg Dissenters' March on March 3, 2007 and The March of the Dissenters on March 24, 2007, both involving several thousand people rallying against Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saint Petersburg Governor Valentina Matviyenko's policies. On April 14, he was briefly arrested by the Moscow police while heading for a demonstration. He was held for some 10 hours, and then fined and released.
Putin's Plan To Retain Power?
On October 1, 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday he would lead the dominant party's ticket in December parliamentary elections and suggested he could become prime minister, the strongest indication yet that he will seek to retain power after he steps down as president early next year.
The Russian constitution prevents Putin ifrom seeking a third consecutive term in the March presidential election, but has strongly indicated he would seek to keep a hand on Russia's reins.
He agreed to head the United Russia party's candidate list in December, which could open the door for him to become a powerful prime minister, leading in tandem with a weak president.
He said that, first, United Russia would have to win the Dec. 2 elections and a "decent, competent, modern person" must be elected president.
Putin's agreement to top the candidate list of United Russia sent an ecstatic cheer though the crowd at a congress of the party, which contains many top officials and dominates the parliament and politics nationwide. The move will likely ensure that United Russia retains a two-thirds majority in the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, enough to change the constitution.
The White House took note of Putin's move and said it was ultimately a matter for the Russian people.
Leading the party's ticket does not mean Putin will take a seat in parliament; prominent politicians and other figures often are given the top spots to attract votes, but stay out of the legislature after elections. The 450 seats in the Duma will be distributed proportionally among parties that receive at least 7 percent of the votes.
The popular Putin has repeatedly promised to step down at the end of his second term in May, as the constitution requires, but has suggested he would maintain significant influence. He offered some initial hints at his strategy last month when he named Viktor Zubkov — a previously obscure figure known mainly for his loyalty — as prime minister.
With no power base of his own, Zubkov would likely play his preordained part in any Putin plan. If he became presiodent and Putin prime minister, Zubkov could be expected to cede specific powers to Putin or step down to allow him to return to the presidency. If he becomes prime minister, Putin would be first in line to replace the president if he is incapacitated.
Putin has amassed authority as president, but as he prepares to step down he has been setting up a system of check and balances that would weaken his successor by putting him at the mercy of rival centers of power. By leading the United Russia party list, Putin instantaneously creates the strongest such center, with himself as its head.
Profile: Dmitrii Anatolevich Medvedev
Dmitrii Anatolevich Medvedev, born September 14, 1965 in Leningrad), is a Russian politician and businessman. He was appointed first deputy prime minister of the Russian government on November 14, 2005. Formerly Vladimir Putin's chief of staff, he is also the chairman of Gazprom's board of directors, a post he has held for the second time since 2000.
Medvedev graduated from the Law Department of Leningrad State University in 1987 (together with Ilya Yeliseyev, Anton Ivanov, Nikolay Vinnichenko and Konstantin Chuychenko) and in 1990 got his PhD in private law from the same university. In 1990 he worked in Leningrad Municipal Soviet of People's Deputies. Between 1991 and 1999 he worked as a docent in Saint Petersburg State University. In 1991 - 1996 Medvedev also worked as a legal expert for the Committee for External Relations of the Saint Petersburg Mayor's Office under Vladimir Putin.
In November 1993, Medvedev became the legal affairs director of Ilim Pulp Enterprise, a St. Petersburg-based timber company. In 1998, he was elected a member of the board of directors of the Bratskiy LPK paper mill. He worked for Ilim Pulp until 1999.
In November of 1999 he became one of several St. Petersburgers brought by Vladimir Putin to top government positions in Moscow. In December of the same year he was appointed deputy head of presidential staff.
Dmitrii Medvedev became one of the politicians closest to President Putin and during the 2000 elections when he was head of the presidential election campaign headquarters. From 2000 to 2001, Medvedev was chair of Gazprom's board of directors. He was then deputy chair from 2001 to 2002. In June of 2002, Medvedev became chair of Gazprom board of directors for a second time. In October 2003, he replaced Alexander Voloshin as a presidential chief of staff. In November 2005, he was appointed by President Vladimir Putin as First Deputy Prime Minister, First Deputy Chairman of the Council for Implementation of the Priority National Projects attached to the President of the Russian Federation, and Chairman of the Council's Presidium.
Dmitrii Medvedev is considered as a moderate liberal pragmatic, able administrator and loyalist of Putin. Following his appointment as First Deputy Prime Minister, some political observers still expect him to be nominated as Putin's successor for the 2008 presidential elections, despite Putin’s appointment of Viktor Zubkov as prime minister in September of 2007.
Kazakhstan: Elections in 2012
Nursultan Abishuly (Abishevich) Nazarbayev was born on July 6, 1940 in Chemolgan, Kazakh SSR, Soviet Union has served as the President of Kazakhstan since the Fall of the Soviet Union and the nation's independence in 1991.
In 1984 Nazarbayev became the Chairman of the Council of Ministers, working under Dinmukhamed Kunayev, the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan He served as First Secretary of the Kazakh Communist Party from 1989 to 1991. While previously having atheistic views in the Soviet era, Nazarbayev has exerted effort to highlight his Muslim heritage by going on hajj, supporting mosque renovations, and at the same time attempting to combat Islamic terrorism in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan's president is elected by the people and serves for at most two five-year terms. Term limits were removed for the incumbent Nursultan Nazarbayev on May 18, 2007, when parliament also voted to reduce the term length from seven to five years. This, however, does not come into effect until the next Kazakh election in 2012.
Nazarbayev has been called one of "ultimate oligarchs" of the post-Soviet Central Asian states. He is believed to have transferred at least $1 billion worth of oil revenues to his private bank accounts in other countries and his family controls many other key enterprises in Kazakhstan. He is also said to have benefitted financially from his "special relations" with Kazakh-Israeli billionaire Alexander Mashkevich, who, as of 2004, was believed to control as much as one-fourth of Kazakhstan's economy.
What If Gazprom Becomes A Russian National Asset?
Gazprom is the largest Russian company and the biggest extractor of natural gas in the world.
With sales of US$ 31 billion in 2004, it accounts for about 93% of Russian natural gas production and with reserves of 28,800 km3, it controls 16% of the world's gas reserves. After acquisition of the oil company Sibneft, Gazprom, with 119 billion barrels of reserves, ranks behind only Saudi Arabia, with 263 billion barrels, and Iran, with 133 billion barrels, as the world's biggest owner of oil and oil equivalent in natural gas.
By the end of 2004 Gazprom was the sole gas supplier to at least Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estonia, Finland, Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Slovakia, and provided 97 percent of Bulgaria's gas, 89 percent of Hungary's, 86 percent of Poland's, nearly three-quarters of the Czech Republic's, 67 percent of Turkey's, 65 percent of Austria's, about 40 percent of Romania's, 36 percent of Germany's, 27 percent of Italy's, and 25 percent of France's. The European Union gets about 25% of its gas supplies from this company.
On July 4, 2007 the Russian State Duma passed a bill giving Gazprom and Transneft the authority to create their own security forces with greater powers than other private security firms. Gennady Gudkov, a deputy in the State Duma who opposed the bill, raised concerns by calling it a “Pandora’s box... This law envisages the creation of corporate armies. If we pass this law, we will all become servants of Gazprom and Transneft.” If Communist Party proposals for renationallization of certain assets are realized, Gudkov’s concern may be part of a larger issue as the newly formed security forces would have to be re-integrated with existing Russian security forces.
In June 2007, TNK-BP, a subsidiary of BP Plc agreed to sell its stake in Kovykta field in Siberia to Gazprom after the Russian authorities questioned BP's right to export the gas to markets outside Russia. On June 23, 2007, the governments of Russia and Italy signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on a joint venture between Gazprom and Eni SpA to construct a 558-mile (900 km) long gas pipeline to carry 1.05 Tcf (30 billion cubic meters) of gas per year from Russia to Europe.
The South Stream pipeline would extend under the Black Sea to Bulgaria with a south fork extending to Italy and a north folk to Hungary. Following the alleged violation of previous agreements and the failure of negotiations, on August 1, 2007 Gazprom announced that it would cut gas supplies to Belarus by 45% from August 3 over a $456 million debt. Talks are continuing and Belarus has asked for more time to pay. Although the revived dispute is not expected to hit supplies to Europe, the European Commission is said to view the situation “very seriously.”
VIA: The Blog of Russian Election 2008
