CANADA: Visions of Alberta as a Clean Energy Super Power

by Kurt Wulff (McDep Associates)
The political risk/reward tradeoff will be tested as a six member panel just appointed by new Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach prepares to deliver recommendations on oil sands royalties by August 31.

The positive outcome would be to satisfy citizens of the province that the current deal serves well toward fulfilling a vision of Alberta as a Clean Energy Super Power, in the words of Shell Canada Chief Executive Clive Mather. The negative outcome would be another blind sided blow to investors on top of the Ottawa Finance Minister’s proposal to renege on tax treatment of income trusts.

We take comfort from the fact that Mr. Stelmach was a minister in the previous administration of Mr. Ralph Klein, the creator of the current tax regime relied upon for billions of dollars of long-term investments. Canadian stocks account for about a 19% unlevered weight in the illustrative McDep Energy Portfolio. Two doubleweighted buy recommendations are clean energy super power leaders, Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF) for oil and EnCana (ECA) mostly for natural gas.

Meanwhile, natural gas for delivery over the next six years quoted at $7.79 a million btu is within 11 cents of crossing above the 40-week average, possibly ending the downtrend for most of last year.

SeekingAlpha

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